Measure completed gaps
Collect the number of rounds between consecutive hits of the same outcome. Do not include an unfinished current gap in the completed-gap sample unless it is clearly marked as censored or ongoing.
Understand percentiles
The 95th percentile of completed gaps is a descriptive boundary exceeded by about five percent of observed completed gaps under the chosen percentile convention; it is not a maximum waiting time.
Avoid selection bias
If many outcomes are monitored, one will often produce an unusually large-looking gap. This is a multiple-comparisons issue, not necessarily evidence of a special property of the game.
Working with the historical data
For a useful comparison, specify the recording date, timezone, game table and observation window. A historical count without those details can easily be interpreted outside the circumstances in which it was measured. Distinguish theoretical probabilities described in game rules from estimated frequencies measured in a particular data source.
Record-based tools are most useful when they make observations reproducible. If a chart cannot be reconciled with the underlying event history, it needs a data-quality review before anyone treats its values as authoritative.
Frequently asked question
Can a percentile specify the next hit time?
No. It summarises a historical distribution and cannot schedule a future outcome.